The Six Red Districts Most Likely to Go Blue in November 2018 (FiveThirtyEight):

California 49th (CA-49)

  • Democrat: Mike Levin
  • Republican: Diane Harkey
  • Levin is up 14 points on Harkey according to the latest polls from September. FiveThirtyEight gives Levin a 29 in 30 chance of winning.

Iowa 1st (IA-01)

  • Democrat: Abby Finkenauer
  • Republican: Rod Blum
  • New York Times poll from September 20rth places Finkenauer at 52% to Blum’s 37%. There was still 11% undecided but FiveThirtyEight rates a democrat win at 29 in 30.

New Jersey 2nd (NJ-02)

  • Democrat: Jeff Van Drew
  • Republican: Seth Grossman
  • Van Drew is in the lead by 23 points and FiveThirtyEight predicts a 49 in 50 chance for a Democrat win.

Pennsylvania 5th (PA-05)

  • Democrat: Mary Gray Scanlon
  • Republican: Pearl Kim
  • District 5 was redrawn by the Supreme Court of Pennsylvania, giving much of the district’s red voters to the state’s district 15. FiveThirtyEight gives Scanlon over 99% chance of winning.

Pennsylvania 6th (PA-06)

  • Democrat: Chrissy Houlahan
  • Republican: Greg McCauley
  • This district was also redrawn in early 2018 and FiveThirtyEight predicts a 99% chance for Houlahan to win.

Pennsylvania 17th (PA-17)

  • Democrat: Conor Lamb
  • Republican: Keith Rothfus
  • This district was recently redrawn in early 2018 with other Pennsylvania districts. FiveThirtyEight gives Lamb a 96% chance of winning this seat. The National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) has reportedly stopped funding the Rothfus campaign, indicating that they have written this race off as a loss.

(Bolded candidates have been endorsed by NOW)

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