Candidates to Watch: November 2018
The Six Red Districts Most Likely to Go Blue in November 2018 (FiveThirtyEight):
California 49th (CA-49)
- Democrat: Mike Levin
- Republican: Diane Harkey
- Levin is up 14 points on Harkey according to the latest polls from September. FiveThirtyEight gives Levin a 29 in 30 chance of winning.
Iowa 1st (IA-01)
- Democrat: Abby Finkenauer
- Republican: Rod Blum
- New York Times poll from September 20rth places Finkenauer at 52% to Blum’s 37%. There was still 11% undecided but FiveThirtyEight rates a democrat win at 29 in 30.
New Jersey 2nd (NJ-02)
- Democrat: Jeff Van Drew
- Republican: Seth Grossman
- Van Drew is in the lead by 23 points and FiveThirtyEight predicts a 49 in 50 chance for a Democrat win.
Pennsylvania 5th (PA-05)
- Democrat: Mary Gray Scanlon
- Republican: Pearl Kim
- District 5 was redrawn by the Supreme Court of Pennsylvania, giving much of the district’s red voters to the state’s district 15. FiveThirtyEight gives Scanlon over 99% chance of winning.
Pennsylvania 6th (PA-06)
- Democrat: Chrissy Houlahan
- Republican: Greg McCauley
- This district was also redrawn in early 2018 and FiveThirtyEight predicts a 99% chance for Houlahan to win.
Pennsylvania 17th (PA-17)
- Democrat: Conor Lamb
- Republican: Keith Rothfus
- This district was recently redrawn in early 2018 with other Pennsylvania districts. FiveThirtyEight gives Lamb a 96% chance of winning this seat. The National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) has reportedly stopped funding the Rothfus campaign, indicating that they have written this race off as a loss.
(Bolded candidates have been endorsed by NOW)